Optimal interventions to curb urban conflagration

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chulahwat, Akshat; Mahmoud, Hussam
• 署名单位: Vanderbilt University; Vanderbilt University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2612835123
• 发表日期: 2026-07-07
• 页码: e2612835123
• 关键词: wildfires; mitigation; graph theory; vulnerability; communities; ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE-CHANGE; wildfire; disaster

摘要

Understanding the efficacy of wildfire mitigation policies is a clear first step toward curbing wildfire losses during an urban conflagration. In this study, we used a validated model to quantify the impact of the spatial distribution of the combined management of open-space vegetation and mitigation of the home ignition zone (HIZ) on the resulting fire boundary and damage to the built environment in the Palisades area of Los Angeles, California. Fuel management in open-space involves reducing vegetation density by a specific percentage to emulate vegetation thinning and prescribed burning. HIZ mitigation involves hardening building features and removing defensible space fuel. For each type of intervension, we employed both random and targeted strategies to quantify their effectiveness in reducing the fire boundary and mean relative vulnerability of buildings. When combined vegetation management and HIZ mitigation are applied randomly, we observed a maximum reduction in mean relative vulnerability of 57%, while targeted strategies result in a maximum reduction of 78%. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining mitigation strategies in reducing damage caused by urban conflagrations.