Global threat exposure of islands in a changing world

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Marino, Clara; Philippe-Lesaffre, Martin; Coutinho Soares, Filipa; de Oliveira Caetano, Gabriel Henrique; Etard, Adrienne; Butt, Nathalie; Capdevila, Pol; Irl, Severin D. H.; Leclerc, Camille; Lenoir, Jonathan; Patino, Jairo; Rigal, Francois; Benitez-Lopez, Ana; Bellard, Celine
• 署名单位: Universite Paris Saclay; AgroParisTech; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN); Universidade do Porto; Universidade de Lisboa; Universidade do Porto; Universidade de Brasilia; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Nature Conservancy; University of Queensland; University of Barcelona; University of Barcelona; Goethe University Frankfurt; Leibniz Association; Senckenberg Biodiversitat & Klima- Forschungszentrum (BiK-F); Senckenberg Gesellschaft fur Naturforschung (SGN); Universite de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2534106123
• 发表日期: 2026-08-11
• 页码: e2534106123
• 关键词: biological invasions; climate change; exposure; land-use change; SSP scenarios; CLIMATE-CHANGE; biodiversity; distributions; scenarios; pollution

摘要

Islands are at the forefront of global environmental change. Biological invasions, land-use change, and climate change are driving population declines and causing irreversible losses in island ecosystems. Although global threat exposure maps have been developed in recent years, they are mostly designed for coarse-grained, continental-extent analyses, often overlooking islands. Here, we assessed the cumulative exposure to biological invasion, land-use change, and climate change by 2050, for more than 16,000 islands worldwide using multiple threat markers. Climate change emerged as a ubiquitous threat, being the dominant threat for 65% of all islands, followed by land-use change (22%) and biological invasions (13%). Islands with the highest cumulative exposure were more likely to be isolated, without historical connection with the mainland. Small and low-elevation islands at low latitudes exhibited greater exposure to climate change, whereas larger, high-elevation islands tended to be more exposed to land-use change. Certain countries and subdivisions, such as Seychelles, Bangladesh, China, French Polynesia, and Micronesia, harbored statistically disproportionate numbers of highly exposed islands, highlighting geographic hotspots of cumulative exposure where conservation efforts might be particularly urgent. Our study indicates that by 2050, most islands will be simultaneously exposed to a triple threat arising from the combined impacts of land-use change, climate change, and biological invasions. This study provides robust quantification of island cumulative exposure to three key drivers of biodiversity loss, making a crucial step toward assessing global biodiversity vulnerability.