When does higher credit lower forest area? Amazon contexts change credit's impacts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ruggiero, Patricia G. C.; Pereda, Paula Carvalho; Pfaff, Alexander
• 署名单位: Universidade de Sao Paulo; Universidade de Sao Paulo; Duke University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2516366123
• 发表日期: 2026-03-24
• 页码: 2516366123
• 关键词: Rebound hypothesis; Borlaug's hypothesis; deforestation frontiers; policy design; SUPPLY CHAIN CONFIGURATIONS; land-use change; drives deforestation; brazilian amazon; frontiers

摘要

Economic activities have transformed over half of the Earth's surface and the large-scale conversion of rural forests to agropastoral production is ongoing. Raising access to credit may lead producers to expand at the expense of the forest or, instead, invest to raise yields, reducing forest loss per unit output. Looking across Brazil's enormous Amazon, we show that extremely different local contexts differ in terms of which effect of credit dominates. We distinguish those contexts using factors that affect cattle and crop production. For each of these two outputs, we find distinct credit impacts by context. Cattle credit raises deforestation where pasture expands over native forest on far frontiers. Crop credit raises deforestation where farms expand over pasture and forest remnants. Understanding impacts heterogeneity can help to reduce losses of rural forests, even while credit is supporting local economies.