Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone-induced power outage risk: Sociodemographic differences in outage burdens

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guikema, Seth; Pagan-Cajigas, Zaira; Fant, Charles; Boehlert, Brent; Maier, C. X.; Emanuel, Kerry; Hartin, Corinne; Sarofim, Marcus C.
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Industrial Economics, Incorporated; United States Environmental Protection Agency
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2502266122
• 发表日期: 2025-10-28
• 页码: e2502266122
• 关键词: electric system reliability; climate change; Power outages; tropical cyclones; interruption cost; hurricanes; accuracy

摘要

This research investigates the projected risks of future climate trends on tropical cyclone- induced power outages in the Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States, focusing on the disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations and the economic burdens associated with such events. Our methodology integrates four well- documented models to estimate changes in power outage rates, sociodemographic inequities, and economic costs due to tropical cyclone projections. Synthetic tropical cyclones were generated using data from seven global climate models (GCMs), used to compare power outage risks at the census tract level along two periods: hindcast (1995-2014) and late- century (2071-2100) using the SSP5- 8.5 scenario. The late- century results from each model were scaled to align with a global warming scenario of 3 degrees C. We evaluated the uncertainty of these projections by considering the agreement among the GCMs outage projections. Results highlight a significant increase in power outage risks and high agreement in northern Florida, Georgia, the mid- Atlantic, and the North Atlantic coast. Distributional impact analyses indicate higher outage risks for Hispanic, non- White, and low- income populations, while economic projections show annual costs rising from $6.2 billion in the hindcast to over $11 billion for the 3 degrees C scenario. The findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies and equitable resource allocation to mitigate these growing risks due to future climate projections.