Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gong, Jianhua; Fan, Wenyuan; McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Behn, Mark D.; Warren, Jessica M.; Roland, Emily; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Collins, John A.; Liu, Yajing; German, Christopher R.
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; United States Department of the Interior; United States Geological Survey; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Boston College; University of Delaware; Western Washington University; University System Of New Hampshire; University of New Hampshire; McGill University
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.ady6190
• 发表日期: 2026-05-14
• 页码: 718-723
• 关键词: EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY; slip; DYNAMICS; SEGMENTS; mode

摘要

Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by barriers that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested similar to 15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.