Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Grunig, Marc; Rammer, Werner; Senf, Cornelius; Albrich, Katharina; Andre, Frederic; Augustynczik, Andrey L. D.; Baumann, Martin; Bohn, Friedrich J.; Bouwman, Meike; Bugmann, Harald; Collalti, Alessio; Cristal, Irina; Dalmonech, Daniela; De Coligny, Francois; Dobor, Laura; Dollinger, Christina; Espelta, Josep Maria; Forrester, David I.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Hiltner, Ulrike; Hlasny, Tomas; Honkaniemi, Juha; Huber, Nica; Jonard, Mathieu; Jonsson, Anna Maria; Kunstler, Georges; Lagergren, Fredrik; Lindner, Marcus; Mina, Marco; Moos, Christine; Morin, Xavier; Muys, Bart; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Nieberg, Mats; Patacca, Marco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Storms, Ilie; Thom, Dominik; Toigo, Maude; Seidl, Rupert
• 署名单位: Technical University of Munich; University of Basel; Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute; University of Basel; Technical University of Munich; Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke); University of Eastern Finland; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ); Wageningen University & Research; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR); Istituto per i Sistemi Agricoli e Forestali del Mediterraneo (ISAFoM-CNR); National Biodiversity Future Center; Universitat de Girona; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); INRAE; CIRAD; Universite de Montpellier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Czech University of Life Sciences Prague; Centro de Investigacion Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF-CERCA); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); CSIRO Environment; Swiss Ornithological Institute; Lund University; INRAE; Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA); European Academy of Bozen-Bolzano; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Montpellier; Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE); KU Leuven; Wageningen University & Research; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Vermont; Universite de Bordeaux; INRAE
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adx6329
• 发表日期: 2026-03-05
• 页码: eadx6329
• 关键词: BEETLE INFESTATIONS; CARBON SINK; impacts; drought; REGIMES; MODEL

摘要

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning-based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe's forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.