Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhu, Sihong; Liu, Yi; Palmer, Paul I.; Feng, Liang; Yang, Dongxu; Chen, Shangfeng; Sasakawa, Motoki; Parker, Robert J.; Boesch, Hartmut; Cao, Junji; Hermansen, Ove; Platt, Stephen M.
• 署名单位: Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; University of Edinburgh; University of Edinburgh; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan; University of Leicester; University of Leicester; University of Bremen; NILU
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aea5828
• 发表日期: 2026-08-06
• 页码: 615-621
• 关键词: earth system model; AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY CLIMATE; atmospheric methane; SIMULATOR ACCESS-ESM1; carbon-cycle; trace gases; permafrost; variability; co2; sensitivity

摘要

The northern permafrost region, which stores double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, is vulnerable to accelerated warming. Methane emissions from thawing permafrost may eventually result in a climate-carbon feedback. Our analysis of atmospheric methane data shows that Siberian growing-season methane emissions have increased by 12.0 +/- 1.9 teragrams of methane (TgCH4) (5% per year) over the period 2010-2023. We reveal contrasting Siberian hydrological trends linked to high-pressure systems and distinct air-sea-land interactions. Warmer, drier conditions over eastern Siberia enhance fire-related emissions (0.7 +/- 0.1 TgCH4 year-2), and wetter conditions over western Siberia promote wetland-related emissions (0.4 +/- 0.1 TgCH4 year-2). Weakly nonlinear relationships between temperature maxima and emissions suggest that by 2050, higher Siberian emissions could offset about 20% of the global methane reduction required for climate targets, with eastern Siberia dominating the projected increase.