Fires reverse progress toward ozone air quality standards in the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Deng, Weizhi; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Meng; Chen, Xi; Wu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Huanxin; Cohen, Jason B.; Wei, Jing; da Silva, Arlindo; Brasseur, Guy P.; Granier, Claire; Rouil, Laurence
• 署名单位: University of Iowa; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; University of Iowa; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; Max Planck Society; Universite de Toulouse (EPE); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); LAERO; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aed3197
• 发表日期: 2026-06-04
• 页码: 1088-1092
• 关键词: emissions; MODEL; mortality; pollution; forecasts; burden

摘要

Recent surges in wildfire emissions have exacerbated surface ozone pollution in the United States. Using deep learning, we developed a gapless daily surface ozone dataset at 1-kilometer resolution for 2003-2024. This dataset revealed a reversal in national policy-relevant ozone trends that had gone undetected by the sparse monitoring network: from -0.65 parts per billion (ppb) per year (2003-2015) to +0.13 ppb per year (2015-2024). The reversal was primarily driven by increasing wildfire emissions, offsetting 3.9 years of mitigation progress. Premature deaths from fire-sourced ozone have increased by 318 deaths per year since 2013, with post-2013 mortality 46% higher than pre-2013 mortality. During 2022-2024, wildfire emissions exposed 43 million people to nonattainment conditions, effectively preventing a 4-ppb tightening of the ozone standard. These results underscore the growing challenges of sustaining air quality progress as wildfires intensify under climate change.