Merger Effects and Antitrust Enforcement: Evidence from US Consumer Packaged Goods

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bhattacharya, Vivek; Illanes, Gaston; Stillerman, David
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; American University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240497
• 发表日期: 2026-08
• 页码: 2996-3035
• 关键词: MARKET POWER; AIRLINE; consolidation; simulation; accuracy; prices

摘要

We document the effects of a comprehensive set of mergers of consumer packaged goods manufacturers on prices, quantities, and product assortment. Across specifications, we find a small average price effect of mergers (-0.5-1.1 percent) but substantial heterogeneity, with a standard deviation between 3.9 and 7.6 percentage points. Through a model of enforcement, we find that agencies act as if they challenge mergers they expect would increase prices more than 4.8 to 6.3 percent. Increases in stringency would reduce prices and the prevalence of completed price-increasing mergers, with minimal impacts on blocked price-decreasing mergers, at significantly greater agency burden. (JEL D43, G34, K21, L13, L41, L66)