Higher-order forward guidance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carreras, Marc Dordal i; Lee, Seung Joo
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106108
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: liquidity trap; MODEL; debt; wage

摘要

This paper develops a model of business cycles with endogenous volatility at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and central-bank forward guidance. We deliver three main results. First, a credible commitment to future stabilization curbs excess volatility at the ZLB. Second, pledging not to stabilize later can shift the economy onto more favorable equilibrium paths, exposing a tradeoff between future stabilization and reduced aggregate volatility at the ZLB. Third, keeping the timing of future stabilization uncertain strictly dominates other forward-guidance strategies.