Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Xiao; Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Sun, Ruoyan; Zhang, Jialiang
• 署名单位: University of International Business & Economics; City University of Hong Kong; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Tsinghua University; University of Alabama System; University of Alabama Birmingham; Central University of Finance & Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104298
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: trade; migration; cost

摘要

We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates self-containment and self-healing mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output losses by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock.