Trade Competition and the Decline in Union Organizing: Evidence from Certification Elections

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Johnson, Matthew S.; Tadjfar, Nagisa
• 署名单位: Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/732302
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: import competition; foreign competition; Wage stickiness; private-sector; unionization; membership; impacts

摘要

The long-term decline in US workers' attempts to organize labor unions accelerated after 2000. We find that the swift rise of imports from China arising from a change in trade policy accounts for nearly all of this post-2000 acceleration: union certification elections decreased substantially among workers in manufacturing industries directly exposed to imports, but also among workers indirectly exposed through their local labor market. Consistent with a simple model of workers' decision to seek union representation, direct exposure lowered the expected wage gain from unionization, whereas indirect exposure increased the cost of job loss-both of which discourage organizing.