Taxes Today, Benefits Tomorrow

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Le Barbanchon, Thomas
• 署名单位: Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20210550
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: unemployment-insurance benefits; optimization frictions; financial incentives; elasticities; EMPLOYMENT; duration; micro; KNOWLEDGE; uncover

摘要

This paper tests whether partially unemployed workers value future preserved benefits when they bunch at the kink of the unemployment insurance benefit-withdrawal schedule. I extend the bunching formula of Saez (2010) to a dynamic setting that accounts for the value of future benefits tied to taxation. This yields new tests of tax-benefit linkage based on bunching heterogeneity. I verify in quasi-experiments that UI extension programs that decrease the value of future preserved benefits lead to more bunching and to lower labor supply. Last, a quantification exercise of the dynamic bunching formula provides extra support for a strong tax-benefit linkage. (JEL H24, H31, H71, J22, J65)