The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan G.
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20250049
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: labor-market impact; nonresponse bias; black-migration; EMPLOYMENT; COMPETITION; demand; POLICY; instruments; uncertainty; EQUATIONS

摘要

US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the H-2B visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota's marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20-0.22), investment (1.5-2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8-2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor. (JEL J15, J24, J46, J61, J82, K37)