Election results and democratic discontent: Expectations, extremism, and democratic values in post-election Brazil

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ferroni, Matteo F.
• 署名单位: University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105770
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: ELECTORAL INSTITUTIONS; polarization; confidence; partisanship; CITIZENS; SYSTEM

摘要

I study how economic expectation shocks induced by elections contribute to democratic discontent in polarized societies, focusing on the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. Using newly collected survey data, I investigate how respondents' expectations and attitudes toward democracy evolved after the opposition candidate's narrow victory. By resurveying respondents post-election, I show that losing polarized voters who overestimate their candidate's chances of winning experience a large negative economic expectation shock, as well as an increase in their anti-democratic sentiment. In an additional survey experiment, I provide causal evidence that this shock is a driver of democratic discontent, by showing that positively updating respondents' economic expectations reduces their anti-democratic sentiment.