BRIDGING RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS AND SINGLE-ARM TRIALS USING COMMENSURATE PRIORS IN ARM-BASED NETWORK META-ANALYSIS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wang, Zhenxun; Lin, Lifeng; Murray, Thomas; Hodges, James S.; Chu, Haitao
• 署名单位: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; State University System of Florida; Florida State University
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1932-6157
• DOI: 10.1214/21-AOAS1469
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1767-1787
• 关键词: clinical-trials; survival-data; MODEL; inconsistency; INFORMATION; FRAMEWORK

摘要

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a powerful tool to compare multiple treatments directly and indirectly by combining and contrasting multiple independent clinical trials. Because many NMAs collect only a few eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs), there is an urgent need to synthesize different sources of information, for example, from both RCTs and single-arm trials. However, single-arm trials and RCTs may have different populations and quality so that assuming they are exchangeable may be inappropriate. This article presents a novel method using a commensurate prior on variance (CPV) to borrow variance (rather than mean) information from single-arm trials in an arm-based (AB) Bayesian NMA. We illustrate the advantages of this CPV method by reanalyzing an NMA of immune checkpoint inhibitors in cancer patients. Comprehensive simulations investigate the impact on statistical inference of including single-arm trials. The simulation results show that the CPV method provides efficient and robust estimation, even when the two sources of information are moderately inconsistent.