A DYNAMIC ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS NETWORK MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO THE UNITED NATIONS VOTING BEHAVIORS
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Kim, Bomin; Niu, Xiaoyue; Hunter, David; Cao, Xun
署名单位：
Freddie Mac; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University
刊物名称：
ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
1932-6157
DOI：
10.1214/23-AOAS1762
发表日期：
2023
页码：
3283-3299
关键词：
摘要：
Motivated by a study of United Nations voting behaviors, we introduce a regression model for a series of networks that are correlated over time. Our model is a dynamic extension of the additive and multiplicative effects network model (AMEN) of Hoff (Statist. Sci. 36 (2021) 34-50). In addition to incorporating a temporal structure, the model accommodates two types of missing data and thus allows the size of the network to vary over time. We demonstrate via simulations the necessity of various components of the model. We apply the model to the United Nations General Assembly voting data from 1983 to 2014 (In Routledge Handbook of International Organization (2013) Routledge) to answer interesting research questions regarding international voting behaviors. In addition to finding important factors that could explain the voting behaviors, the model-estimated additive effects, multiplicative effects, and their movements reveal meaningful foreign policy positions and alliances of various countries.
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