Fiscal planning, budgeting, and rebudgeting using revenue semaphores

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cornia, GC; Nelson, RD; Wilko, A
• 署名单位: Brigham Young University; Brigham Young University
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6210.2004.00358.x
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 164-179
• 关键词: Divided government; forecasts; accuracy; JUDGMENT; institutions; rationality; STATES; MODEL

摘要

Revenue forecasts play an important role in the state government budget and policy process. These forecasts are generally reported to executive and legislative leaders as point estimates, with no acknowledgment of their corresponding risk and uncertainty. The revenue semaphores proposed in this article outline procedures by which revenue uncertainty directly influences the planning process. The goal is not to make forecasts more accurate, but to make discussions of budget and revenue alternatives more comprehensive. Explicitly incorporating risk and uncertainty measures into the budgeting process increases the degree of real-time budgeting and reduces some adverse effects of budget revisions after the fiscal year begins. The discussion occurs in the context of budget control, management, and policy making.