Unknowns, Black Swans, and Bounded Rationality in Public Organizations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Feduzi, Alberto; Runde, Jochen; Schwarz, Gary
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of London; Queen Mary University London
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352
• DOI: 10.1111/puar.13522
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 958-963
• 关键词: crisis management; capacity; FUTURE; time

摘要

Unknowns and Black Swans have become familiar terms in the public administration literature but tend to be used in different and often conflicting ways. This article provides a typology of the terms, develops a framework for thinking about how their elements relate, and distinguishes four varieties of the Black Swan. Using the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster, 9/11, the international withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the trade boycott associated with the Danish cartoon controversy as examples, we examine how these four varieties may arise in public sector organizations. We offer recommendations on how such organizations might reduce psychological and organizational barriers to uncovering unknowns before they can go on to become Black Swans.