Evaluating turnover intention as a proxy for behavior in the federal public service: Evidence from two surveys of senior civil servants

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Limbocker, Scott; Richardson, Mark D.
• 署名单位: United States Department of Defense; United States Army; United States Military Academy; Georgetown University; Georgetown University
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352
• DOI: 10.1111/puar.13748
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 1067-1078
• 关键词: exit; expertise

摘要

Studies of turnover in the federal public service often study intention rather than behavior and studies that evaluate the reliability of intention as a proxy for that behavior are rare. This article uses a novel data set that measures exit intention and behavior for the same senior civil servants to evaluate two aspects of the reliability of turnover intention as a proxy for behavior: (1) prediction error and (2) similarity of marginal effects. Overall, exit intention is a problematic proxy for behavior because it consistently overestimates the probability of exit. While coefficients from models of intent tend to have the correct sign, the magnitudes of marginal effects can be misleading, tending to overestimate corresponding marginal effects in models of exit behavior. Moreover, coefficients do sometimes change signs between models. The article discusses the implications of these findings and suggests the next steps to better use exit intention to understand exit behavior.