Rapidly Evolving Technologies and Startup Exits

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bowen, Donald E., III; Fresard, Laurent; Hoberg, Gerard
• 署名单位: Lehigh University; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Universita della Svizzera Italiana; University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4362
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 940-967
• 关键词: patent text; technology waves; INNOVATION; technology substitution; venture capital; startup exit; Initial public offerings (IPOs); acquisitions; sell-outs

摘要

This paper examines startups' positioning within technological cycles. We use patent text to measure whether innovation pertains to a technological area that is rapidly evolving or stable. We show that innovation in rapidly evolving areas (i.e., early in the cycle) substitute for existing technologies, whereas innovation in stable areas (i.e., later in the cycle) complement them. Our new measure is distinct from existing characterizations of innovation and is economically important. We find that startups in rapidly evolving areas tend to exit via initial public offering, thus remaining independent, consistent with technological substitution. In contrast, startups in stable areas tend to sell out, consistent with technological complementarity and synergies.