An equilibrium model of Global Imbalances and low interest rates

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Caballero, Ricardo J.; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.1.358
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 358-393
• 关键词: US CURRENT ACCOUNT; debt

摘要

The sustained rise in US current account deficits, the stubborn decline in long-run real rates, and the rise in US assets in global portfolios appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional models. This paper rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome when different regions of the world differ in their capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. Extensions of the basic model generate exchange rate and foreign direct investment excess returns broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. The framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment.