Technological Diversification

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Koren, Miklos; Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: Central European University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.1.378
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 378-414
• 关键词: firm growth; size; volatility; returns; MARKETS; RISK

摘要

Economies at early stages of development are frequently shaken by large changes in growth rates, whereas advanced economies tend to experience relatively stable growth rates. To explain this pattern, we propose a model of technological diversification. Production makes use of input-varieties that are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. Endogenous variety adoption by firms raises average productivity and provides diversification benefits against variety-specific shocks. Firm-level and aggregate volatility thus decline as a by-product of the development process. We quantitatively assess the model's predictions and find that it can generate patterns of volatility and development consistent with the data. (JEL D21, D24, E23, O33, O47)