A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Armenter, Roc; Koren, Miklos
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Central European University; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.7.2127
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 2127-2151
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; gravity equation; FIRMS; industries; partners; QUALITY; US

摘要

Many of the facts about the extensive margin of trade-which firms export, and how many products are sent to how many destinations-are consistent with a surprisingly large class of trade models because of the sparse nature of trade data. We propose a statistical model to account for sparsity, formalizing the assignment of trade shipments to country, product, and firm categories as balls falling into bins. The balls-and-bins model quantitatively reproduces the pattern of zero product-and firm-level trade flows across export destinations, and the frequency of multiproduct, multidestination exporters. In contrast, balls-and-bins overpredicts the fraction of exporting firms.