Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Kovak, Brian K.
• 署名单位: Duke University; Carnegie Mellon University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161214
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 2908-2946
• 关键词: labor-markets; adjustment; wages; PRODUCTIVITY; informality; poverty; impacts; REFORM

摘要

We study the evolution of trade liberalization's effects on Brazilian local labor markets. Regions facing larger tariff cuts experienced prolonged declines in formal sector employment and earnings relative to other regions. The impact of tariff changes on regional earnings 20 years after liberalization was three times the effect after 10 years. These increasing effects on regional earnings are inconsistent with conventional spatial equilibrium models, which predict declining effects due to spatial arbitrage. We investigate potential mechanisms, finding empirical support for a mechanism involving imperfect interregional labor mobility and dynamics in labor demand, driven by slow capital adjustment and agglomeration economies. This mechanism gradually amplifies the effects of liberalization, explaining the slow adjustment path of regional earnings and quantitatively accounting for the magnitude of the long-run effects.