Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141419
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 2731-2783
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; productivity growth; level productivity; import competition; Firm evidence; INVESTMENT; AGREEMENTS; entry; EMPLOYMENT; countries

摘要

We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000-2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it.