The Persistence of Local Joblessness

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Amior, Michael; Manning, Alan
• 署名单位: Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160575
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1942-1970
• 关键词: us labor-market; UNITED-STATES; spatial equilibrium; agglomeration economies; internal migration; Bargaining theory; decline; unemployment; adjustments; GROWTH

摘要

Differences in employment-population ratios across US commuting zones have persisted for many decades. We claim these disparities represent real gaps in economic opportunity for individuals of fixed characteristics. These gaps persist despite a strong migratory response, and we attribute this to high persistence in labor demand shocks. These trends generate a race between local employment and population: population always lags behind employment, yielding persistent deviations in employment rates. Methodologically, we argue the employment rate can serve as a sufficient statistic for local well-being; and we model population and employment dynamics using an error correction mechanism, which explicitly allows for disequilibrium.