Subsidies and Time Discounting in New Technology Adoption: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Systems

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: De Groote, Olivier; Verboven, Frank
• 署名单位: Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; KU Leuven; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161343
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 2137-2172
• 关键词: discrete-choice models; demand; EFFICIENCY; Heterogeneity; gasoline; rates

摘要

We study a generous program to promote the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through subsidies on future electricity production, rather than through upfront investment subsidies. We develop a tractable dynamic model of new technology adoption, also accounting for local market heterogeneity. We identify the discount factor from demand responses to variation that shifts expected future but not current utilities. Despite the massive adoption, we find that households significantly discounted the future benefits from the new technology. This implies that an upfront investment subsidy program would have promoted the technology at a much lower budgetary cost. (JEL C51, D15, Q48, Q58)