Did Austerity Cause Brexit?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fetzer, Thiemo
• 署名单位: University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181164
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 3849-3886
• 关键词: biased technological-change; INDEPENDENCE PARTY UKIP; import competition; wage inequality; immigration; nation

摘要

This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government's austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.