Failures in Contingent Reasoning: The Role of Uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Martinez-Marquina, Alejandro; Niederle, Muriel; Vespa, Emanuel
• 署名单位: Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20171764
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 3437-3474
• 关键词: expected-utility-theory; winners curse; revealed preference; decision-making; guessing games; thinking; MODEL; CHOICE; INFORMATION; BEHAVIOR

摘要

We propose a new channel to account for the difficulties of individuals with contingent reasoning: the presence of uncertainty. When moving from an environment with one state of known value to one with multiple possible values, two changes occur. First, the number of values to consider increases. Second, the value of the state is uncertain. We show in an experiment that this lack of certainty, or the loss of the Power of Certainty, impedes payoff maximization and that it accounts for a substantial portion of the difficulties with contingent reasoning.