Optimal Trend Inflation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Adam, Klaus; Weber, Henning
• 署名单位: University of Mannheim; Deutsche Bundesbank
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20171066
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 702-737
• 关键词: optimal monetary-policy; prices; GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; Currency; plants; TRADE; BIAS

摘要

Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977-2015.