Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Saint Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170772
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1603-1634
• 关键词: cyclical dynamics; search; WEALTH; MODEL; prices; liquidity; channels; earnings; POLICY; rates

摘要

Using a quantitative heterogeneous agents macro-housing model and detailed microdata, this paper studies the drivers of the 2006-2011 housing bust, its spillovers to consumption and the credit market, and the ability of mortgage rate interventions to accelerate the recovery. The model features tenure choice between owning and renting, rich portfolio choice, long-term defaultable mortgages, and endogenously illiquid housing from search frictions. The equilibrium analysis and empirical evidence suggest that the deterioration in house prices and liquidity, transmitted to consumption via balance sheets that vary in composition and depth, is central to explaining the observed aggregate and cross-sectional patterns.