Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing Bubble

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bayer, Patrick; Mangum, Kyle; Roberts, James W.
• 署名单位: Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20171611
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 609-651
• 关键词: Herd behavior; MARKET; DYNAMICS; demand; VALUES; MODEL

摘要

Historical anecdotes abound of new investors being drawn into a booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns. While the role of investor contagion in asset bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical literature, causal empirical evidence on the topic is much rarer. This paper studies the recent boom and bust in the US housing market and establishes that many novice investors entered the market as a direct result of observing investing activity of multiple forms in their own neighborhoods and that infected investors performed poorly relative to other investors along several dimensions.