Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huckfeldt, Christopher
• 署名单位: Cornell University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160449
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1273-1310
• 关键词: labor-market conditions; earnings losses; equilibrium unemployment; cyclical behavior; job displacement; mobility; cost

摘要

This paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-skill occupations, and that the cost and incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. I propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, leading some unemployed workers to optimally search for reemployment in lower-skill jobs. The model accounts for existing estimates of the size and cyclicality of the present value cost of job loss, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession.