The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jones, Charles I.
• 署名单位: Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201605
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 3489-3527
• 关键词: demographic-transition; endogenous growth; fertility choice; TECHNOLOGY; INEQUALITY; mortality; MODEL; view

摘要

In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or grow-ing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global pop-ulation will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In stan-dard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy. (JEL I12, J11, J13, O41)