Does Context Outweigh Individual Characteristics in Driving Voting Behavior? Evidence from Relocations within the United States

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cantoni, Enrico; Pons, Vincent
• 署名单位: University of Bologna; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201660
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1226-1272
• 关键词: voter turnout; political responsiveness; LAWS; mobility; redistribution; partisanship; preferences; selection; exposure; impacts

摘要

We measure the overall influence of contextual versus individual factors (e.g., voting rules and media as opposed to race and education) on voter behavior, and explore underlying mechanisms. Using a US-wide voter-level panel, 2008-2018, we examine voters who relocate across state and county lines, tracking changes in registration, turnout, and party affiliation to estimate location and individual fixed effects in a value-added model. Location explains 37 percent of the cross-state variation in turnout (to 63 percent for individual characteristics) and an only slightly smaller share of variation in party affiliation. Place effects are larger for young and White voters.