The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Patterson, Christina
• 署名单位: University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210254
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 982-1012
• 关键词: monetary-policy; consumption inequality; income; Heterogeneity; WEALTH; propensity; households; benefits; RISK

摘要

This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between workers' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elas-ticities of earnings to GDP, which is a key moment for a new class of heterogeneous-agent models. I define the matching multiplier as the increase in the multiplier stemming from this matching of high MPC workers to more cyclical jobs. I show that this covariance is large enough to increase the aggregate MPC by 20 percent over an equal exposure benchmark. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32)