Globalization and Pandemics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Antras, Pol; Redding, Stephen J.; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201479
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 939-981
• 关键词: infectious-diseases; mathematical-theory; TRADE; models; equilibrium; migration; geography; EPIDEMIC; networks; income

摘要

We provide theory and evidence on the relationship between global-ization and pandemics. Business travel facilitates trade and travel leads to human interactions that transmit disease. Trade-motivated travel generates an epidemiological externality across countries. If infections lead to deaths, or reduce individual labor supply, we establish a general equilibrium social distancing effect, whereby increases in relative prices in unhealthy countries reduce travel to those countries. If agents internalize the threat of infection, we show that their behavioral responses lead to a reduction in travel that is larger for higher-trade-cost locations, which initially reduces the ratio of trade to output. (JEL D91, F14, F60, I12, N30, N70, Z31)