The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depressions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Karabarbounis, Loukas; Kekre, Rohan
• 署名单位: Harvard University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210864
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 2411-2457
• 关键词: business cycles; sudden stops; fiscal stimulus; Tax changes; returns; PRODUCTIVITY; DYNAMICS; prices; POLICY; shocks

摘要

Greece experienced a boom until 2007, followed by a collapse of unprecedented magnitude and persistence. We assess the sources of the boom and the bust, using a rich estimated dynamic general equilibrium model. External demand and government consumption fueled the boom in production, whereas transfers fueled the boom in consumption. Different from the standard narrative, wages and prices declined substantially during the bust. Tax policy accounts for the largest fraction of the bust in production, whereas uninsurable risk accounts for the bust in consumption and wages. We assess how the composition of fiscal adjustment and bailouts affected the crisis. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E62, F41, H20)