How to Use Natural Experiments to Estimate Misallocation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sraer, D. A. V. I. D.; Thesmar, D. A. V. I. D.
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190609
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 906-938
• 关键词: capital structure; Aggregate productivity; financial frictions; credit constraints; INVESTMENT; RISK; DYNAMICS; uncertainty; allocation; ECONOMY

摘要

We propose a method to estimate the effect of firm policies (e.g., bankruptcy laws) on allocative efficiency using (quasi -)experimen-tal evidence. Our approach takes general equilibrium effects into account and requires neither a structural estimation nor a precise assumption on how the experiment affects firms. Our aggregation formula relies on treatment effects of the policy on the distribution of output-to-capital ratios, which are easily estimated. We show this method is valid for a large class of commonly used models in macrofinance. We apply it to the French banking deregulation epi-sode of the mid -1980s and find an increase in aggregate TFP of 5 percent.