Nobel Lecture: Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hansen, Lars Peter
• 署名单位: University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/678456
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 945-987
• 关键词: instrumental variables estimation; LARGE-SAMPLE PROPERTIES; ASSET-PRICING-MODELS; rational-expectations; generalized-method; Empirical Likelihood; risk-aversion; efficient estimation; temporal behavior; financial-markets

摘要

We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. (Knight 1921, 201-2)