Political Booms, Financial Crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Herrera, Helios; Ordonez, Guillermo; Trebesch, Christoph
• 署名单位: University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/704544
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 507-543
• 关键词: Capital Flow; POLICY; cycles; Mexico

摘要

Political booms, measured by the rise in governments' popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond better known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We argue that governments in developing countries have stronger incentives to ride unsound credit booms in order to boost their popularity, rather than implementing corrective policies that could prevent crises but are politically costly. We provide evidence of the relevance of this mechanism, partly by constructing a new cross-country data set on government popularity based on opinion polls.