Expectations as Endowments: Evidence on Reference-Dependent Preferences from Exchange and Valuation Experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ericson, Keith M. Marzilli; Fuster, Andreas
• 署名单位: Harvard University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjr034
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 1879-1907
• 关键词: reference points; decision-making; COMPETITION; experience; tests; RISK; BIAS; pay

摘要

While evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes with respect to reference points, little is known about what determines them. We conduct two experiments that show that reference points are determined, at least in part, by expectations. In an exchange experiment, we endow subjects with an item and randomize the probability they will be allowed to trade. Subjects that are less likely to be able to trade are more likely to choose to keep their item. In a valuation experiment, we randomly assign subjects a high or low probability of obtaining an item and elicit their willingness-to-accept for it. The high probability treatment increases valuation of the item by 20-30%.