Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
• 署名单位: Stockholm University; Sveriges Riksbank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/715849
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 3039-3072
• 关键词: NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES; endogenous growth; MODEL; demand; equilibrium; TECHNOLOGY; INNOVATION; IMPACT; BIAS

摘要

We develop a quantitative macroeconomic theory of input-saving technical change to analyze how markets economize on scarce natural resources, with an application to fossil fuel. We find that aggregate US data call for a very low short-run substitution elasticity between energy and the capital/labor inputs. Our estimates imply that energy-saving technical change took off when the oil shocks hit in the 1970s. This response implies significant substitutability with the other inputs in the long run: even under ever-rising energy prices, long-run consumption growth is still possible, along with a modest factor share of energy.