Labor Market Conflict and the Decline of the Rust Belt

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alder, Simeon D.; Lagakos, David; Ohanian, Lee
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/724852
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 2780-2824
• 关键词: structural-change; COMPETITION; PRODUCTIVITY; GROWTH; US; INNOVATION; diffusion; policies; markups; unions

摘要

No region of the United States fared worse over the postwar period than the Rust Belt. This paper analyzes how much of its decline can be accounted for by the persistent labor market conflict that characterized Rust Belt union-management relations. We develop a multisector, multiregion, dynamic general equilibrium model in which labor market conflict leads to strikes, wage premia, lower investment, and lower productivity growth. These lead to shrinking Rust Belt industries and to workers moving out of the Rust Belt. Labor conflict accounts for half of the decline in the region's share of manufacturing employment. Foreign competition plays a smaller role, and its effects are concentrated after most of the region's decline had already occurred.