Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eichenbaum, Martin; de Matos, Miguel Godinho; Lima, Francisco; Rebelo, Sergio; Trabandt, Mathias
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Universidade de Lisboa; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Goethe University Frankfurt
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/729449
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2571-2611
• 关键词: risk; LIFE; BEHAVIOR; HEALTH

摘要

This paper develops a quantitative theory of how people weigh the risks of infections against the benefits of engaging in social interactions that contribute to the spread of infectious diseases. Our framework takes into account the effects of public policies and private behavior on the spread of the disease. We evaluate the model using a novel micro panel dataset on consumption expenditures of young and older people across the first three waves of COVID-19 in Portugal. Our model highlights the critical role of expectations in shaping how human behavior influences the dynamics of epidemics.