Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guo, Rufei; Yi, Junjian; Zhang, Junsen; Zhang, Ning
• 署名单位: Wuhan University; Peking University; Zhejiang University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/736768
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3349-3386
• 关键词: family-size; CHINA; identification; Abortion; POLICY; population; INVESTMENT; models; GROWTH; POWER

摘要

We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality trade-off. An exogenous increase in fertility can be either desired or undesired. We derive a positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We propose an econometric framework to identify treatment effects of desired and undesired fertility increases and estimate a structural model to gauge the quantitative importance of the novel rationing income effect. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.