BANKING CRISES WITHOUT PANICS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baron, Matthew; Verner, Emil; Xiong, Wei
• 署名单位: Cornell University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Princeton University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa034
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 51-113
• 关键词: Financial crises; liquidity; debt; distress; cycles; runs

摘要

We examine historical banking crises through the lens of bank equity declines, which cover a broad sample of episodes of banking distress with and without banking panics. To do this, we construct a new data set on bank equity returns and narrative information on banking panics for 46 countries over the period of 1870 to 2016. We find that even in the absence of panics, large bank equity declines are associated with substantial credit contractions and output gaps. Although panics are an important amplification mechanism, our results indicate that panics are not necessary for banking crises to have severe economic consequences. Furthermore, panics tend to be preceded by large bank equity declines, suggesting that panics are the result, rather than the cause, of earlier bank losses. We use bank equity returns to uncover a number of forgotten historical banking crises and create a banking crisis chronology that distinguishes between bank equity losses and panics.