SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carvalho, Vasco M.; Nirei, Makoto; Saito, Yukiko U.; Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; Alan Turing Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Tokyo; Waseda University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaa044
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1255-1321
• 关键词: production networks; shocks; origins; GROWTH; IMPACT; micro

摘要

Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this article provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan's real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.