Bottom-Up Markup Fluctuations*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Burstein, Ariel T.; Carvalho, Vasco M.; Grassi, Basile
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Cambridge; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaf029
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 2619-2684
• 关键词: cyclical behavior; firm dynamics; marginal cost; prices; origins; TRADE; COMPETITION; entry; POWER; MODEL

摘要

We study markup cyclicality in a granular macroeconomic model with oligopolistic competition. We first characterize how firm, sectoral, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation in response to firm-level shocks. We quantify the model's ability to reproduce salient features of the cyclical properties of measured markups in French administrative firm-level data from the bottom (firm) level to the aggregate level. We document that (i) firm-level markups rise with market share and sector-level markups with concentration, (ii) the relationship between markups and sectoral output varies by firm size-negative for small firms but positive for large ones, (iii) sector-level markups move positively with sectoral output, and (iv) sectoral markups show no systematic relationship with aggregate output. Our model helps rationalize these seemingly conflicting patterns of markup cyclicality in the data.